Subject: Re: Bob Schacht's stats Date: Sat, 24 Oct 1998 22:44:03 -0700 From: Bob Schacht To: miser17@epix.net, crosstalk@info.harpercollins.com At 06:23 PM 10/24/98 -0400, Stevan Davies wrote: >BOB >> I'm gonna attempt to actually pin numbers to this problem. >> First of all, this is basically a probability problem of sampling without >> replacement. Therefore the probability of *any particular* three-saying >> sequence would be (1/90) times (1/89) times (1/88) = 1.418681193962e-6 = >> .000001418681193962 if the sayings were drawn at random. > >STEVE >OK. But the question is NOT "any particular" but ANY AT ALL. The >argument is made that if ANY three saying sequence is found then >there probably is dependence. As I recall from >Patterson's book there was ONE three saying sequence // in GTh and >a synoptic gospel. Now, the question is NOT >whether THAT ONE is likely to have happened by chance but whether ANY >one is likely to have happened by chance because the argument is >that if any one happened dependence is likely. And the ANY one could >be in Mt or Mk or Lk. > Steve, I tried to deal with this in my original message, but you have cut out the part where I tried to deal with it. The question is, how many "ANY one"'s are there? You have to be willing to get specific about that. I did, and came up with 88. I included my logic behind the 88 in my message, but you deleted that. I also outlined what was involved in specifying more than that, but you've cut that out, too. So all you're doing is waving your hands in the air and making noise. >From Rene we have 30 Mk 77 Mt 70 Lk for A sayings. > >Thus we need an ANY statistic for ALL three (not each of the three >separately). What odds that three would be in sequence anywhere >in any of the three? In order to answer that question, as I explained in my original message and above, is how do we count the number of possible three-saying sequences? How many possible sequences of 3 sayings from Mark would there be? How many from Matthew? How many from Luke? BTW, "Oh, lots and lots!" does not count as a good answer. It is about as useful on this list as "I believe in the resurrection", and maybe even less useful off this list. You also deleted the date of my original message, which I am having trouble finding. I guess rather than using a reply button, you selectively retyped from the original, leaving out lots of important stuff. >... Come back! None of us are perfect! > >Steve OK! :-) Bob "Is it not extraordinary to the point of being a miracle, that so loose and ill-constructed a narrative in an antique translation of a dubious text should after so many centuries still have power to quell and dominate a restless, opinionated, overexercised and undernourished, twentieth-century mind?" Malcolm Muggeridge _Jesus Rediscovered_ (1969), writing about the KJV New Testament